Homework #07 - Gap Statistics

Duration:12:03
Variable speed version: Watch

How often does price gap up or down on the ES? And when it does, how often is that gap closed.

Gap Statistics Chart Definition Gap Statistics Plus Chart Definition (This chart also shows how many days the gap was recovered by 50%. It also requires the user to set C#2 to the number of days to lookback for gap. This number will most commonly be 1. If C#2 is set to 2, it will look for a gap from 2 days ago instead of previous day).

Gap Count Percent Number Closed Closed Percent
3 895 63.93% 491 54.86%
5 626 44.75% 295 47.12%
10 269 19.25% 95 35.32%
15 123 8.75% 37 30.08%
20 56 4.00% 17 30.56%
25 29 2.07% 8 27.59%
30 19 1.36% 4 21.05%
40 7 0.50% 1 14.29%
50 3 0.21% 0 0.00%

Note

Almost 1/3 of the time that price gaps 20 points in either direction, it closes that gap during the day session.
Over 45% of the time price gaps 3 points or more, it never closes that gap and never returns to the previous close.

The study was repeated to include an upper limit on the gaps, resulting in statistics based on gaps within certain ranges.

Chart Definition

Gap Count Percent Number Closed Closed Percent
1-3 348 24.86% 290 83.33%
3-5 269 19.21% 196 72.86%
5-10 357 25.50% 200 56.02%
10-15 146 10.43% 58 39.73%
15-20 67 4.79% 20 29.85%
20-25 27 1.93% 9 33.33%
25-30 10 0.71% 4 40.00%
30-40 12 0.86% 3 25.00%
40-50 4 0.29% 1 25.00%
50+ 1 0.07% 0 0.00%